By David Dodge, GreenEnergyFutures.ca
In one of the most amazing coal-phase-outs in the world on June 16, 2024 at 10:57 pm the last lump of coal was burned at the Genesee power plant in Alberta.
This represents the largest emissions reduction action in Canada. As recently as 2001, Alberta was producing 80% of its electricity from coal-fired power plants. Right up until the 2010s Alberta remained bullish on coal. Alberta was still building coal-fired power plants in 2011 when the Keephills 3 plant opened.
The 463-megawatt plant cost $1.98 billion and was built with the full knowledge that hundreds of countries around the world just met at the 17th UN Conference of the Parties (COP) agreeing to cut greenhouse gas emissions to avert the climate crisis drastically.
After COP 17 in Durban in December 2011 BAN Ki-Moon, Secretary-General of the United Nations said: “The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change tells us, unequivocally, that greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by half by 2050 – if we are to keep the rise in global temperatures to 2 degrees since pre-industrial times.”
In 2012 a phase-out of coal-fired power was contemplated in Alberta, and they’d set a target to be 2061,” says Scott MacDougall, head of electricity policy at the Pembina Institute.
The 2061 phase-out was seen as a failure to adequately address the issue.
Then in 2015 Rachael Notley’s NDP surprised the long-ruling conservatives by forming a majority government and soon after formulating a plan to address climate change and accelerate the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
Notley accelerates the coal phase-out
“By the end of 2015, it [the coal phase-out] was set at 2030. And then with last week’s coal phase-out, that target was done five years early,” says MacDougall.
It’s a cautionary tale for those in conventional energy who thumb their noses at climate change, energy transition and the economic momentum behind it.
Alberta’s coal power plants were still responsible for 7% of Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions in 2005.
“I guess I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention the health benefits associated with phasing out coal because it’s not just a climate story,” says MacDougall.
“In 2015, there were at least 58 premature deaths just in Alberta associated with the emissions from coal. And … it was around $460 million per year in costs associated with those health impacts,” says MacDougall.
Also part of Rachael Notley’s climate plan the Alberta government issued RFPs for renewable energy projects. The result changed the landscape for renewable energy in Canada. They secured some of the cheapest electricity money can buy and injected new momentum into the industry.
It wasn’t long before Alberta’s renewable energy boomed resulting in billions of dollars worth of projects including the 465-megawatt Travers Solar Project, the largest in Canadian history which presold 80% of its energy to Amazon before completion. Amazon also announced a $4.3 billion investment in a new data center in Alberta which some say was due to the availability of renewable energy.
Alberta’s fading leadership
The NDP lost the next election to the new libertarian brand of conservatives under the banner of the United Conservative Party and their focus since then has been to retreat to thumbing their noses at climate change, supporting the fossil fuel industries and blocking progress on renewable energy and energy transition.
As for the coal phase-out, it was completed six years ahead of the 2030 deadline set by Rachael Notely. But this incredible success story is somewhat tempered by the fact that much of the coal was replaced by natural gas.
Coal emissions replaced by 60% as much natural gas emissions
“So with the shift to gas, I guess we’ve got both a greenhouse gas emissions challenge where we’ve still got, you know, 60% ish of the emissions that we would have had with coal, but now we’ve got them coming from gas,” says MacDougall.
Capital Power was the last coal-fired electricity company to phase out coal on June 16th when the two remaining coal units at Genesee stopped burning coal.
Just two years before this Capital Power was extolling its green vision under the previous CEO Brian Vaasjo. Not only were the two Genesee units being converted to natural gas, they were also built hydrogen-ready and the company planned to add a $2.4 billion carbon capture and storage Facility on site as well.
“I was sad, and quite disappointed when Capitol Power last month announced that it was no longer going to progress its carbon capture and storage projects for these repowered Genesee gas-fired plants,” says MacDougall.
“That would have been like a fabulous demonstration project for the world to see CCS done on gas-fired power plants. Because at scale, it hasn’t been done anywhere in the world to my knowledge,” he says.
It seems carbon capture and storage will not be done unless utilities are forced to do it by law or high enough carbon prices.
Long live what king? Where does Alberta go from here?
Alberta could easily lean into the energy transition and achieve a grid that is at least 50% renewable energy by 2050, but last year Danielle Smith’s UCP government imposed a moratorium on renewable energy development.
Then they imposed onerous new rules and rattled the confidence of investors. See our stories on Unpausing Renewables and Alberta’s new renewable energy rules – a red tape solution in search of a problem.
This is putting billions in investment at risk and taking a pass on almost $1 trillion in global investment in 2024 alone.
The normally conservative International Energy Agency sums up the opportunity quite nicely. In 2024 they’re expecting almost a trillion dollars in investment, with solar receiving more of that investment than all other technologies combined.
“The world now invests almost twice as much in clean energy as it does fossil fuels,” says the IEA.
And China is investing less in fossil fuels and twice as much in clean energy than the US in 2024.
The pathway to net-zero in Alberta is well documented and it has the best clean energy resources and some of the best knowledge and entrepreneurs in the space – it only lacks political leadership.
The Notley government set goals to phase out coal by 2030, for replacing two-thirds of the coal with renewable energy and that renewable energy sources would comprise 30% of Alberta’s electricity production by 2030.
Alberta reached 30% renewable energy in 2024
On June 25, 2024, at noon Alberta was producing 30% of its electricity from solar, wind, hydro and biomass.
If all Alberta did was to allow developers to invest in clean energy the province could organically get to 50% clean energy by 2030.
In 2024 Germany got to 62% renewable energy with less natural gas to backstop its renewables.
MacDougall says Alberta needs to add transmission interties to share electricity better, add energy storage and modernize its electricity markets, rules and regulations to accommodate energy storage, and smart grid technologies.
King Coal may be dead, and the interim monarch seems to be natural gas, but the end of the story is not written yet. It seems likely that natural gas will share its monarchy and likely be succeeded by clean energy.